Stochastic Modeling of Tanker Traffic through Narrow Waterways

In this paper a stochastic model of tanker traffic is developed to determine the probability of vessel casualties resulting from the transit traffic through a narrow waterway. More specifically, the present study models the collision and grounding probabilities in a waterway resulting from course changes due to hydrodynamic forces acting on the vessel. The computation of vessel positions and the drift probabilities are based on probabilistic considerations of physical quantities that affect navigation including vessel characteristics, randomness of hydrodynamic forces and vessel arrival times. The modeling results provide risk charts that will show the casualty probability across the geometry of the strait at a given time and vessel traffic intensity. Furthermore, the relationship between the traffic intensity and a global measure of casualty risk was analyzed. This preliminary study will be used as a test bed for a more comprehensive model.